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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFederal Reserve set to cut rates twice in 2024, StanChart strategist saysSteve Englander, head of global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, outlines his forecasts for U.S. monetary policy and the strength of the U.S. dollar.
Persons: Steve Englander Organizations: Standard Chartered Bank, U.S . Locations: North America
Bitcoin's break below $58,000 on Wednesday clears a path for it to fall as low as $50,000, Standard Chartered said in new research. The crypto's decline has been driven by rising ETF outflows and falling US liquidity levels. AdvertisementDeteriorating conditions are denting the Bitcoin rally, with this week's drop below $60,000 putting it en route for an even lower price range. According to commentary from Standard Chartered, the apex token could temporarily reach as low as $50,000, signaling an over 13% drop from current levels. Among these are shrinking investments in spot bitcoin ETFs, funds that first sparked the rally at the year's start.
Persons: , Geoff Kendrick, Kendrick, Mike Novogratz, he's Organizations: Chartered, outflows, Service, Standard Chartered, FX Locations: Hong Kong
HSBC discusses prospects of yen intervention
  + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHSBC discusses prospects of yen interventionJoey Chew, HSBC's head of Asia FX Research, discusses the outlook for the currency and monetary policy.
Persons: Joey Chew Organizations: HSBC, Asia FX Research
Japan is "very, very close" to intervening in the yen, Steven Englander, head of Global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, told CNBC as the currency languishes at multi-decade lows. "I think we're actually very, very close to them [Japanese authorities] jumping in ... they've already discussed the political consequences and nobody's sitting there asking for a weaker yen," Englander told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Thursday. The Japanese yen traded around 151.47 against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after falling to its weakest level in 34 years at 151.97 in the previous session. Standard Chartered's Englander said potential intervention in the yen would be aimed at buying time for Japanese authorities until the U.S. Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates or until the Bank of Japan hikes its rates a little more. He further noted that when Japanese authorities last intervened in the yen in 2022, it "worked out pretty well," even though investors were initially skeptical of the effectiveness of such currency intervention.
Persons: Steven Englander, they've, nobody's, Englander, CNBC's, Shunichi Suzuki, Masato Kanda, Yoshimasa Hayashi Organizations: Global, Standard Chartered Bank, CNBC, U.S, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan Locations: Japan, North America, .
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapan is 'very, very close' to intervening in the yen, strategist saysSteven Englander, head of Global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, says "I think the market wants to push them to show their cards, and I think that they will react aggressively to that, and at some point intervene if it looks as if new highs are being hit."
Persons: Steven Englander Organizations: Japan, Global, Standard Chartered Bank Locations: North America
Dollar steady in cautious start to busy data, Fed week
  + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. one hundred dollar bills are being shown in this picture illustration taken in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on December 15, 2023. The dollar started the week on a steady footing as investors took stock of U.S. economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting this week, while escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept risk sentiment in check. But since then, strong economic data and pushback from central bankers have prompted traders to adjust expectations. Beyond the Fed, investors will also watch for a slew of economic data including a U.S. payrolls report that will help gauge the strength of labor market. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar rose 0.21% to $0.659, while the New Zealand dollar gained 0.18% to$0.610.
Persons: Marc Chandler, Chandler, Jerome Powell, Paul Mackel, Sterling, Joe Biden, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal, HSBC, Bank of England, U.S, New Zealand Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, U.S, Bannockburn, Jordan, Syrian, Iran, Israel
Dollar pares gains on soft U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar index pared gains on Friday after U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in December, raising expectations of an early U.S. rate cut. That led traders to add to bets for a rate cut in the coming months. Fed funds futures now imply a 79% chance of a March rate cut, up from 73% on Thursday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Traders maintained their view that a March rate cut is likely even after consumer price inflation data on Thursday came in above economists' expectations. The dollar index was last up 0.19% at 102.40.
Persons: Steve Englander, Englander, Martin Luther King Jr, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, British, Global, Research, Standard Chartered Bank, Branch, Traders, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Wednesday Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, U.S, Yemen, America, Zealand, Iran, Red, Gaza
People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. The 10-year yield on U.K. government bonds, known as gilts, was 13 basis points lower at 4.366% at 3:20 p.m. in London following the Bank of England announcement at midday. The 2-year yield, a reflection of interest rate expectations, was down 8 basis points at 4.711%. Elsewhere in Europe, bond yields have also been sliding. German 10-year bond yields fell following the Fed decision and were around 5 basis points lower on Thursday, while Italy's 10-year yield was down 9 basis points.
Persons: Henry Nicholls, , Philip Lane, Jerome Powell's, Steve Englander Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Research, Standard Chartered, Treasury Locations: City, London, Britain, Europe, North America, U.S
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda attends a press conference after its policy meeting in Tokyo, Japan October 31, 2023, in this photo taken by Kyodo. In addition, interest rate changes were asymmetric — Fed rate hikes following stock market recoveries were usually muted compared with the initial cuts. This was an explicit, open-ended policy to hold the currency at a set level and flood the Swiss economy and markets with oceans of liquidity, but essentially still a central bank put. As Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex points out, it is financial stability that is ultimately - and rightly - at the heart of the so-called central bank put. "There is a perception or myth that has built up around the central bank put.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Alan Greenspan, Louis, William Poole, Greenspan, Steven Englander, Marc Chandler, Chandler, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Japan, Kyodo, REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Louis Fed, Swiss National Bank, Standard Chartered, National Bureau of Economic Research, Swiss, Reuters, Bannockburn Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, New York, Switzerland, Swiss, Bannockburn
"Central banks are not trying to hit the CPI targets in the near term," said Colin Asher, senior economist at Mizuho. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, fell 0.1% to 106.13, after dropping 0.4% on Monday. Fed officials will enter into a blackout period on Oct. 21 before the central bank's Oct. 31–Nov. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said on Monday the central bank should not create new pressure on the economy by increasing the cost of borrowing. Australia's central bank considered raising rates at its recent policy meeting but judged there was not enough new information to warrant a move, minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Oct. 3 policy meeting showed.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Colin Asher, Asher, Masato Kanda, Valentin Marinov, Marinov, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Sterling, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill, Gareth Jones Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Bank of Japan, Mizuho, CPI, Swiss, CIB, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Bank of England, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Thomson Locations: Australia's, London, Singapore
Representation of Ethereum, with its native cryptocurrency ether, is seen in this illustration taken November 29, 2021. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, may rise more than five-fold in value by the end of 2026, according to global bank Standard Chartered (STAN.L), its latest prediction of rocketing crypto prices. The price of crypto tokens are generally driven by the sentiment of investors. Ether has gained some 30% this year, though remains almost 70% below its all-time high of about $4,869, hit in Nov. 2021. StanChart said in July that top crypto token bitcoin could reach $50,000 this year and $120,000 by the end of 2024.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Geoff Kendrick, Kendrick, StanChart, Bitcoin, Tom Wilson, Elizabeth Howcroft, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, Chartered, StanChart, FX Research, Reuters, Thomson Locations: West
Ether could hit $8,000 by end-2026, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick wrote. Bitcoin's halving, regulatory developments, and the end to the bond market sell-off will also benefit ether. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . By the end of 2026, ether could reach $8,000, or a 400% jump from today's price of around $1,600.
Persons: Geoff Kendrick, , Kendrick, Tokenization Organizations: Service, Chartered, BTC, ETH, FX Research, Digital Assets
[1/2] Euro and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The euro fell 0.19% to $1.0566 but the dollar index , a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, retreated 0.16% after earlier trading higher. The Japanese yen , another traditional safe-haven currency, edged higher 0.57% higher to 148.47 per dollar. Net long positions on the dollar rose to a one-year high, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of the net long dollar position was $10.55 billion for the week ended Oct. 6.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Benjamin Netanyahu, Brad Bechtel, Bechtel, Marc Chandler, I'm, Chandler, Sterling, Swedish krona, Paul Mackel, Herbert Lash, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Christina Fincher, Mark Potter, Will Dunham, Leslie Adler Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Israel, FX, Jefferies, Hamas, Bannockburn Global, U.S ., Canadian, New, Norwegian, U.S . Commodity Futures, Commission, Federal Reserve, Group, HSBC, Golden, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, Israeli, New York, Japan, Bannockburn, New Zealand, Swedish, U.S, Asia, London, Singapore
[1/2] Euro and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. Net long positions on the dollar rose to a one-year high, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. But investors aren't expecting another hike from the Federal Reserve in November, according to CME Group data. Its inability to capitalise on healthy U.S. labour market data brings that thinking to the fore," said Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research at HSBC. The offshore yuan rose 0.2% to 7.2943 per dollar.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Ulrich Leuchtmann, aren't, Paul Mackel, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Alison Williams, Christina Fincher Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Israel, greenback, FX, Research, U.S . Commodity Futures, Commission, Federal Reserve, Group, FX Research, HSBC, Golden, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Israel, Palestinian, Israeli, Japan, U.S, Asia, London, Singapore
Investors piled into bets on the BoE keeping Bank Rate at 5.25% on Wednesday as soon as official data showed a surprise fall in the pace of price growth. Other analysts said they still thought a final BoE rate hike was the most likely outcome after a recent jump in global oil prices, but they stressed it could go either way. "We stick with our call for a hike, but now see this as a coin toss," JP Morgan economist Allan Monks said. British inflation is almost double the rate in the United States, where the Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept borrowing costs on hold. Last week, the European Central Bank raised rates to a record high but signalled that it was likely to pause.
Persons: BoE, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Allan Monks, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Bailey, Dominic Bunning, William Schomberg, Alex Richardson Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, British, ECB, FX Research, HSBC, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: United States
As they did in June, Fed policymakers at the median still see the central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate peaking this year in the 5.50%-5.75% range, just a quarter of a percentage point above the current range. But from there, the Fed's updated quarterly projections show rates falling only half a percentage point in 2024 compared with the full percentage point of cuts anticipated at the meeting in June. Interest rate sensitive two-year Treasury yields hit 17-year highs on Wednesday after the Fed decision. "It looks as though the Fed is trying to send as hawkish a signal as it possibly can," said Gennadiny Goldberg, interest rate strategist at TD Securities. The yen was down 0.13% versus the greenback at 148.05 per dollar after the Fed decision.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Karl Schamotta, Schamotta, Jerome Powell, Gennadiny Goldberg, Dominic Bunning, BoE, Masato Kanda, Janet Yellen, bitcoin, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Herbert, Joice Alves, Brigid Riley, Marguerita Choy, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Bank of England, Reuters, FX Research, HSBC, Washington, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Toronto, Japan, U.S, New York, London, Tokyo
The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of rivals, was 0.1% lower at 105.00. The pound was volatile, last down 0.23% to $1.2364 after touching its lowest in almost four months following data showing UK inflation slowed more than expected in August. "This can drag GBP down, especially against the USD where pricing for rate cuts may already be overstretched". The yen flattened at 147.87 after touching a fresh 10-month weak-point against the dollar of 148.17 ahead of the Fed decision. The offshore yuan was unchanged at 7.3055 after China met market expectations by keeping its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Wednesday.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, BoE, Dominic Bunning, Bunning, Goldman Sachs, Powell, Elsa Lignos, Masato Kanda, Janet Yellen, Joice Alves, Brigid Riley, Gerry Doyle, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S, Reuters, FX Research, HSBC, FX, RBC Europe, Washington, Treasury, Bank of Japan's, Thomson Locations: Japan, U.S, China, London, Tokyo
European stocks (.STOXX) fell as much as 0.5% in early trading, with rate-sensitive tech stocks (.SX8P) losing 0.8%. And the latest spike in oil prices to 10-month highs is unlikely to escape the Fed's attention. Fuelling worries over persistent inflation were oil prices, which firmed after hitting a 10-month peak a day earlier. ECB HIKE BETSThe euro was down 0.1% at $1.074, after nearing one-week highs on the Reuters story which was published late on Tuesday. "The leak raises the possibility of a hawkish hike which would be much more supportive for the EUR," said Steve Englander, global head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered, referring to the Reuters report.
Persons: Androniki, Robert Alster, you'll, Steve Englander, Tom Wilson, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam, Christina Fincher Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Consumer, Index, Federal Reserve, Management, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Nasdaq, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Markets, Standard Chartered, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SYDNEY, Asia, Pacific, London, Sydney
Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were mostly unchanged. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slipped 0.3% while Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) eased 0.1%. While core CPI is seen cooling to 4.3% year-on-year in August from 4.7%, rising energy costs are forecast to keep headline inflation elevated at 3.6%. And the latest spike in oil prices to ten-month highs is unlikely to escape the Fed's attention. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 0.6% overnight, the Nasdaq declined 1% while Dow Jones was mostly flat.
Persons: Androniki, Ray Attrill, Dow Jones, Steve Englander, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Apple, Oracle, Thursday SYDNEY, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Nasdaq, Tokyo's Nikkei, Consumer, Index, Federal, Fed, National Australia Bank, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Standard Chartered, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, Asia, Pacific
In 2022 the bond market crash saw the value of central banks' Treasuries holdings plunge by $435 billion, Bertaut and Judson's estimates show. This doesn't suggest central banks are dumping Treasuries, be it for financial or political reasons. What's more, these figures don't account for what analysts describe as stealth or shadow central bank demand not included in the official data. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsIt is undeniable, however, that the collective central bank footprint in the Treasuries market is nowhere near what it used to be. For now, central banks are still buying, just not as much as they used to.
Persons: Abraham Lincoln, Gary Cameron, chunky, Carol Bertaut, Ruth Judson, That's, Steven Englander, Judson, Lehman Brothers, Jamie McGeever, David Holmes Organizations: Engraving, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, of America, Bank of America, BANK, Standard Chartered, Treasuries, Fed, ICE, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Beijing, China, Saudi Arabia, American Republic, North America, Belgium
Signs that the dollar will continue enjoying its yield-advantage over other currencies have undercut support for bearish views on the greenback. That theme will be tested in September, as the market braces for a flood of key U.S. economic data as well as the Fed's monetary policy meeting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's message at next week's monetary policy meeting could also influence the dollar's trajectory. While Englander is bearish the dollar in the medium term, the currency's "underlying drivers have been going so much in the opposite direction," he said. Other dollar rebounds this year, in March and May, failed at levels not far from where the dollar index trades now.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, It's, Vassili Serebriakov, Jerome Powell's, Steven Englander, Serebriakov, it's, Kit Juckes, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Laura Matthews, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Futures Trading, UBS, Reuters Graphics, Fed, Standard Chartered, Reuters, TD Securities, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States
Soft data drags back dollar ahead of Jackson Hole
  + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar nursed a sharp pullback against Asian currencies on Thursday, after softer-than-expected global economic data muddied the interest rate outlook and pushed down U.S. yields ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium. The New Zealand dollar also leapt overnight, as did the yen , which crossed below 145 to the dollar for the first time in more than a week tracking a sharp move lower in U.S. Treasury yields. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies remains higher for the month, but dipped about 0.2% overnight. PMI data was soft globally, which tempered gains for the euro and sent sterling on a wide-ranging round trip before it steadied around $1.2717. China's yuan, which has been supported by state-bank buying in recent sessions, was steady at 7.2864 in thin offshore trade.
Persons: Jackson, PMIs, Carol Kong, Jerome Powell's, Steve Englander Organizations: Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Treasury, PMI Locations: U.S, Asia, China
Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The dollar hit a one-month high against a basket of major currencies, before steadying, as investors sought a safe haven on concerns about China's economy. Japan's currency weakened to as low as 145.22 per dollar in early Asian hours, its lowest since Nov. 10, before quickly reversing course in a volatile start to the week. Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen. With the yen loitering around the 145 level again, traders expect Japanese officials to start warning of intervention soon as they did in June.
Persons: Yen, Dado Ruvic, Charu Chanana, Chris Turner, Russia's rouble, Sterling, Joey Chew, Ankur Banerjee, Harry Robertson, Shri Navaratnam, Lincoln, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Saxo Markets, International Trust Co, ING, Australian, Federal, Asia FX, HSBC, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Japan, United States, China, U.S, Russian, Ukraine, Asia, Singapore, London
The increase, anticipated by investors with nearly a 100% probability, would raise the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range. That would bring it to roughly the highest level since the approach to the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession. Far from it, the economy is proving more resilient to rising interest rates than expected, with ongoing growth and an unemployment rate that is currently pinned at a low 3.6%. New data on the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, will be released on Friday. The Fed will have a larger-than-usual amount of data to assess before its next meeting on Sept. 19-20, some eight weeks away.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Steve Englander, Powell, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Standard Chartered, Data, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, North America
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank will all announce key interest rate decisions this week, with each potentially nearing a pivotal moment in their monetary policy trajectory. The Fed Each central bank faces a very different challenge. "The FOMC will, however, maintain a tight monetary policy stance to aid continued softening in demand and consequently, inflation." Several analysts over the past week have suggested that policymakers will remain "data dependent," but push back against any talk of interest rate cuts in the near future. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane last month warned markets against pricing in cuts to interest rates within the next two years.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Michael Cahill, Cahill, Steve Englander, Englander, Philip Lane, Paul Hollingsworth, Christine Lagarde, Hollingsworth Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Bloomberg, Getty, . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Federal, Moody's Investors Service, Standard Chartered, Downside, Fed, BNP, Bank of Locations: U.S, North America, Bank of Japan, Japan
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